关于道路交通安全管理工作的几点思考

针对我国目前道路交通状况,从四个方面客观分析了存在的主要原因。同时,提出了四点对策,有理有据,具有可操作性。     

城市干道交通拥堵识别技术研究

为快速有效地进行城市干道的交通拥堵识别,文中提出一种基于朴素贝叶斯的城市干道交通拥堵识别算法。最后,基于南京市主干道的交通调查数据,对朴素贝叶斯算法以及基于径向基函数神经网络的城市干道交通拥堵识别算法进行对比。结果表明,朴素贝叶斯算法在对城市干道交通状态的识别上比基于径向基函数神经网络算法具有更好的准确性、优越性以及更低的误判率。     

浅谈道路桥梁路基施工

路基是公路的重要组成部分,是按照路线位置和一定技术要求修筑的带状构造物,承受由路面传来的荷载,应有足够的强度、稳定性和耐久性。本文根据已有的经验,对当前如何保证以最佳的效果解决好公路路基施工技术问题加以研究,使我国的公路建设再上一个新台阶。     

客运专线整体式无砟轨道道床板上拱与支撑层产生离缝病害整治技术

该文通过调查分析整体式无砟轨道道床板上拱与支撑层产生离缝病害原因,并针对病害原因提出整治原则及方案,详细介绍了整治方案的工艺及操作要点,认真细致的描述了各工序的施工方法,最后对方案整治效果及方案实施的优缺点进行了归纳总结,经过两年多的运营,状况良好,为无砟轨道线路离缝病害整治提出了一套可行性的方案。     

Seat-belt use still low in Kuwait: self-reported driving behaviours among adult drivers

Kuwait mandated seat-belt use by drivers in 1976 and by front seat passengers in 1994. The study objectives were to identify and estimate current factors associated with seat-belt use and levels of potentially unsafe driving behaviours in Kuwait. In 2010, 741 adults were surveyed regarding driving habits and history. Only 41.6% of drivers reported always using a seat belt. Front seat passenger belt use was more common (30.5%) than rear seat belt use (6.5%). Distracted driving behaviours were common, including mobile phone use (‘always’ or ‘almost always’: 51.1%) and texting/SMS (32.4%). Logistic regression indicated that drivers who were young (18–19 years), male, Kuwaiti nationals or non-Kuwaiti Arabs, drove over the speed limit, had traffic violation tickets or >1 car crashes in the last year, were less likely to use seat belts. Targeted initiatives to increase public awareness and to enforce car-safety legislation, including use of seat belts, are necessary to decrease the health burden of car crashes in Kuwait.     

Knowledge,beliefs and attitudes of squash venue operators relating to use of protective eyewear

Sports venues are in a position to potentially influence the safety practices of their patrons. This study examined the knowledge, beliefs and attitudes of venue operators that could influence the use of protective eyewear by squash players. A 50% random sample of all private and public squash venues affiliated with the Victorian Squash Federation in metropolitan Melbourne was selected. Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 15 squash venue operators during August 2001. Interviews were transcribed and content and thematic analyses were performed. The content of the interviews covered five topics: (1) overall injury risk perception, (2) eye injury occurrence, (3) knowledge, behaviors, attitudes and beliefs associated with protective eyewear, (4) compulsory protective eyewear and (5) availability of protective eyewear at venues. Venue operators were mainly concerned with the severe nature of eye injuries, rather than the relatively low incidence of these injuries. Some venue operators believed that players should wear any eyewear, rather than none at all, and believed that more players should use protective eyewear. Generally, they did not believe that players with higher levels of experience and expertise needed to wear protective eyewear when playing. Only six venues had at least one type of eyewear available for players to hire or borrow or to purchase. Operators expressed a desire to be informed about correct protective eyewear. Appropriate protective eyewear is not readily available at squash venues. Better-informed venue operators may be more likely to provide suitable protective eyewear.     

基于GIS和CFD的城市街道通风廊道研究——以武汉为例

改善通风的城市形态因素可以分为建筑和道路2个方面。建筑形态的通风评价主要采取综合迎风面积密度方法,将城市建筑环境转化为具有数值属性的栅格,从而提取城市建成区的通风廊道,但是该方法忽略了城市重要的通风路径——城市街道。以街道的朝向为主要评价对象,挖掘线状要素城市道路的通风廊道,作为建筑形态通风廊道划分方法的补充。根据通风潜力随夹角的变化规律,利用地理信息系统(GIS)的空间分析技术进行街道的通风潜力评价,在综合迎风面积密度密集的区域,存在通风潜力较高的城市街道     

Machine learning for pricing American options in high-dimensional Markovian and non-Markovian models

In this paper we propose two efficient techniques which allow one to compute the price of American basket options. In particular, we consider a basket of assets that follow a multi-dimensional Black–Scholes dynamics. The proposed techniques, called GPR Tree (GRP-Tree) and GPR Exact Integration (GPR-EI), are both based on Machine Learning, exploited together with binomial trees or with a closed form formula for integration. Moreover, these two methods solve the backward dynamic programing problem considering a Bermudan approximation of the American option. On the exercise dates, the value of the option is first computed as the maximum between the exercise value and the continuation value and then approximated by means of Gaussian Process Regression. The two methods mainly differ in the approach used to compute the continuation value: a single step of the binomial tree or integration according to the probability density of the process. Numerical results show that these two methods are accurate and reliable in handling American options on very large baskets of assets. Moreover we also consider the rough Bergomi model, which provides stochastic volatility with memory. Despite that this model is only bidimensional, the whole history of the process impacts on the price, and how to handle all this information is not obvious at all. To this aim, we present how to adapt the GPR-Tree and GPR-EI methods and we focus on pricing American options in this non-Markovian framework.     

提升算法对传统车险索赔频率建模模型的改进——基于我国五省交强险保单数据

广义线性模型作为非寿险定价的经典模型,在非寿险定价中得到了广泛的应用。近年来,以提升算法为代表的机器学习算法在保险领域取得了很好的效果,为保险产品定价提供了一种新的选择。本文将提升算法思想分别融入到回归树模型和广义线性模型(GLM)中去,用得到的新模型对我国车险索赔频率进行预测建模分析,并与传统的回归树模型和GLM进行比较。结果表明,加入提升算法后传统车险索赔频率建模模型的效果得到了很大的改善,并且在不存在过拟合的前提下,随着模型深度和迭代次数的增加,模型的效果也在不断优化。     

西北半干旱地区既有城市道路海绵化 改造模式探索——以西宁为例

西宁属于西北高海拔半干旱地区,具有年均降雨量 少、蒸发量高的气候特征。城市道路是城市径流雨水产流的主 要组成部分。西宁现状城市道路均采用传统快排方式,存在雨 水利用不佳、污染城市末端水系生态环境等问题。根据城市道 路等级、下垫面及现状植被生长情况,分析西宁海绵城市建设 试点区道路改造项目的特点,定制城市道路海绵化改造的技术 路线,分类探讨解决西北半干旱地区城市道路初期雨水的径流 污染控制及雨水利用问题。根据已完成海绵化改造的8条道路 的经验,提炼西宁城市道路海绵化改造模式,以期为西北半干 旱地区城市道路海绵化改造提供解决思路。